ISFDB Age Graphs

Then follows a flury of questions, such as: "What's the typical age for a first novelist," "How young was the youngest first novelist," countered with "How old was the oldest first novelist", or "How young was the youngest Hugo-winner" and so on.

So: the ISFDB has publication dates, author birthdates, and an array of award-nominated titles which can be used as a measure of quality. What follows is a series of graphs, based on tracking author ages through a number of publication events. The first section graphs data based strictly on publication dates, without regard to quality. The second takes award nominations information into account, and the third takes award wins into account, both attempting to graph information concerning quality.

Publication Date Data:

1. First Novels This graph is constructed by starting with the database of birthdates. For each author in the birthdate data, the novel database is searched for their works. If a work is found, the age at publication is determined; if the age is less than the current age on hand, it is replaced. There are two caveats: (1) This information tracks date of publication, not the date of writing, (2) it doesn't take into account novels which are published posthumously, and (3) some data artifacts exist in the >70 range due to mainstream authors who dabbled in the genre at an advanced age.

   The graph shows that lots of people have their first novel published by age 25, while just as many have their first novel published at age 45. The peak in first novels seems to occur around age 33, although lots of first novels are published well into the 50s.

2. First Shortfiction This graph is constructed in exactly the same way as the first novels graph above, and the same caveats apply.

   The peak in first shortfiction seems to occur around age 28, about five years in advance of the peak for first novels.

3. Novels This graph is constructed by starting with the novel database. For each novel, an attempt is made to locate the author's birthdate. If it can't be found, the work is rejected. For collaborations, the book is counted against the age of each author, so it may be included several times. The percentage of novels actually used in the calculations is displayed on the graph. Just to point out the obvious: only dates of first publication are used.

   The graph shows that starting at age 25 (which is where first time novelists start to make an impact on the curve), there is a steep climb to a peak around age 43. The curve then slowly declines, becoming asymptotic in the late 70s.

4. Shortfiction This graph is constructed in the same manner as the Novels graph. As common sense tells us, it's easier to get a work of short fiction published than a novel. The curve starts its climb at about age 20, and reaches its peak at about age 35. To grossly overgeneralize - it looks like the shortfiction curve is about 5 years ahead of the novel curve, suggesting that it takes about 5 years of experience writing publishable short fiction before a person can write a novel good enough to be published.

5. Essays This graph is constructed in the same manner as the Novels graph. The essay curve is shifted far to the right, peaking in the late 40's, but with serious output from about age 42 to about age 53. Clearly, people feel that they need a few years under the belt before they start pointificating.

1. Short Stories This graph is constructed by loading the titles database, looking for matches in the awards database, then searching the author database for authors with birthdates. Again, collaborations are rejected.

   The award-nominated short story curve starts at about age 25, and climbs to a peak at age 41, with an earlier spike at 36.

2. Novelettes This graph is constructed in the same manner as the Short Stories graph. The award-nominated novelette curve starts at about age 25, and climbs to a peak at age 39.

3. Novellas The award-nominated novelette curve starts at about age 25, and climbs to a peak at age 44, with an earlier spike at 38.

4. Novels The award-nominated novel curve starts at about age 25, and rapidly climbs to a peak at age 37.

1. Short Stories This graph is constructed the same as above, except only award-winning records are kept.

   This particular graph is the least coherent of the bunch, almost certainly due to the small sample space. The award-winning short story curve starts at about age 29, and climbs to a peak an early peak at age 35.

2. Novelettes This graph is constructed in the same manner as the Short Stories graph. The award-winning novelette curve starts at about age 25, and climbs to a peak somewhere around age 38.

3. Novellas The award-winning novelette curve starts at about age 25, and climbs to a peak at age 38.

4. Novels The award-winning novel curve starts later, at about age 27 and climbs to a peak at about 36.

The graph shows that "quality" suddenly appears at age 23, increases until doubled at age 37, then tapers off at a steady level until about age 50, where the data then gets a bit fuzzy. Closer examination of the data shows that the quality ratio drops until about age 55, when it starts to rise again. It's possible that the fuzzy data past age 45 shows the genre purging itself of the lowest-quality authors as their works fail to sell, leaving more and more of the high-quality ones, but that's speculative. It's interesting to note that the fuzziness is more pronounced in age brackets greater than 70, and the quality ratio skyrockets.

This graph does show that quality begins to drop after age 37. However, this data is for the entire sample of SF authors as they pass through specific age points. It doesn't track, for example, whether or not any specific author experiences a decline in quality. For instance, if "quality" authors begin writing more ambitious novels after age 37 - novels which take longer to write - then the number of quality books would be reduced, lowering the overall quality ratio in later age brackets.

So, what does this all prove? Well, apparently nothing. But it is a fun way to burn a few minutes.